Climate forecasters say El Niño has officially returned—and it could become one of the strongest events on record by this winter.
The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center announced that El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific Ocean and are expected to strengthen through the fall and into the winter of 2026-27.
According to forecasters, ocean temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific have warmed significantly over the past month, a key indicator of El Niño. Atmospheric conditions have also shifted in ways consistent with the climate pattern’s development.
Perhaps most notably, NOAA scientists say there is a 63 percent chance that this year’s El Niño will become a “very strong” event by late fall and winter—potentially placing it among the strongest El Niño episodes recorded since modern recordkeeping began in 1950.
While El Niño does not guarantee specific weather outcomes in every location, stronger events tend to have a greater influence on seasonal weather patterns around the globe. In California, strong El Niño winters have historically been associated with increased chances of wetter-than-normal conditions, though impacts can vary significantly from storm to storm and region to region.
Forecasters will continue monitoring ocean and atmospheric conditions throughout the summer. The next official ENSO diagnostic update is scheduled for release on July 9th.
