A March heat wave combined with the natural alternate-bearing cycle of pistachio trees will likely reduce the 2026 harvest to less than half the 2025 record crop.
Jeff Nichols, vice president of supply chain and grower relations at Nichols Farms in Hanford, says higher grower prices will not offset the smaller crop. He expects overall crop revenue to fall since prices won’t double while the harvest shrinks by half.
Industry members estimated the 2026 crop at 1.2 billion pounds in January, anticipating the trees’ “off” year. Now, with harvest almost complete, the total appears closer to 655 million pounds. In 2025, pistachio growers harvested a record 1.57 billion pounds during the trees’ “on” year.
How will growers adjust to this sharp drop in supply? Can pricing shifts balance the financial impact? The pistachio industry faces clear challenges ahead.
